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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as Beijing escalates tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol announced that its ships conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are administered by Tokyo but also asserted as territory by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it might provoke a military response from Japan.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a withdrawal from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

Adding to the tensions, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an unstable security environment.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a major confrontation with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Japan's primary defense partner, the United States.

However, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards the island.